煤炭价格波动与电力供应紧张--基于月度数据的经验证据

摘要

Coal price could have an effect on electricity supply in China , which does not attract most researchers'attention.We analyze the relationship between power supply , coal price and economic growth .Empirical test is applied using the data from October 1996 to May 2012.The result suggests that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship be-tween power supply , coal price and economic growth .Power shortage is a departure from the long-run equilibrium relation-ship.Using bootstrap granger causality testing approach we find a unidirectional Granger causality running from power supply to economic growth , a unidirectional Granger causality running from coal price to power supply and a bidirectional Granger causality between coal price and economic growth .Policy solutions are also discussed in the paper , such as perfection of coal-electricity price link system , monitoring coal price fluctuation and breaking the administrative monopoly in electricity market .%近十年来电力供应紧张一直困扰中国经济，大量文献检验了电力供应与经济增长的关系，而忽视了煤炭价格这一因素。基于1996年10月到2012年5月的月度数据，我们使用了包含煤炭价格的多变量方法进行分析。研究结果显示， Johansen协整检验发现电力供应、煤炭价格和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系；拔靴Granger因果检验发现，电力供应单向引导经济增长，煤炭价格单向引起电力供应，煤炭价格与经济增长之间存在双向的Granger因果联系。据此，我们建议完善煤电价格联动机制，密切关注煤炭价格波动和打破电力市场行政垄断等。