永城矿区煤层气主控因素分析及含气量预测研究

摘要

In order to quantitatively research the coalbed methane content,taking No.22 coal seam in Maqiaobei-mazhuang coal-detailed survey area of Yongcheng Mining Area for a research object,this paper discussed the controlling factors of coal bed gas content by using quantitative analysis and grey relational analysis.Meanwhile,based on the multiple factors static grey mode GM(1,4),the authors established the forecast model of CBM content according with the study area,and compared the results of GM (1,4) model and regression analysis.The results showed that the absolute error ranged from-1.06 to 1.62 mL/g between the predicted values of GM (1,4) model and measured values.Furthermore,the absolute error of the coalbed gas content of the other three wells in the study area,which were predicted by GM(1,4) model,the absolute error was-1.29 ～ 0.97 mL/g.The GM(1,4) model absolute error was superior to the multiple linear regression analysis model,which reflected the accuracy of the prediction model to a certain extent.It establishes foundation to prediction of the coalbed gas content in deep and unknown regions.%为了定量研究煤层含气量,以永城矿区马桥北马庄详查区二2煤层为研究对象,利用灰色关联分析法,对该区煤层气的控气因素进行了定量分析,优选出了4个影响煤层含气量的因素作为指标体系,基于灰色多变量静态模型GM(1,4)建立了符合该矿区煤层气含量预测模型,并经多元线性回归分析结果进行了对比.结果表明:预测值与实际值的绝对误差为-1.06～ 1.62 mL/g,同时利用构建的数学模型对区内另外3个钻孔的煤层含气量进行了预测,绝对误差为-1.29～0.97 ml/g,其误差较小,且明显优于多元线性回归模型,一定程度上反映了预测模型的准确性,为该区深部以及未知区域的煤层气含气量预测奠定了基础.