基于灰色理论确定赵各庄矿突出预测敏感指标

摘要

为了提高煤矿煤与瓦斯突出危险预测的准确性及可靠性，防止“高指标不突，低指标突出”现象的发生，在对赵各庄矿各预测指标现场跟踪考察的基础上，利用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析方法，建立灰色关联分析数学模型，定量分析了各预测指标的敏感性，通过综合排序，最终确定Δh2和 S 为赵各庄矿的突出预测敏感指标。%In this paper, in order to improve accuracy and reliability in coal and gas outburst risk prediction, to prevent the occurrence of the phenomenon of no outburst with high indicators while outburst with low indicators, gray relationship analysis model is established based on field inspection over mine prediction indicators of Zhao Gezhuang Coal Mine, by use of gray relationship analysis method of gray system theo-ry. With all this, it offers a quantitative analysis on sensitivity of various prediction indicators, and ultimately determines that Δh2 and S are sensitive indicators for outburst predictions of Zhao Gezhuang coal mine.