Forecast indexes optimization of outburst in cross-out exposing coal-bed based on measurement uncertainty analysis

摘要

The accurate test of coal seam outburst indexes is the foundation of coal and gas outburst forecast. Recurring to well-rounded uncertainty theory and technology can build the optimization method of outburst forecast indexes aiming at the testing process complexity. Firstly, uncertain factors of effecting test results were analyzed, an uncertainty mathematics model was established based on Taylor series, and effecting component of uncertainty were assessed. Afterward, extended uncertainty was calculated, the standard uncertainty of outburst indexes were synthesized by uncertainty of each effecting component using uncertainty propagation formula. The calculation shows that extended relative uncertainty of D, K, k1, Δh2 are 41%, 42.5%, 32.2%, 24.7%, the uncertainty influence of outburst indexes testing results cannot be ignored in terms of forecasting outburst accuracy.