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北京市人口-经济-空间城市化耦合协调性分析

     

摘要

文章首先基于人口、经济、空间城市化概念与内涵构建评价指标,在综合测度1990-2008年间北京市各系统的城市化水平的基础上,借鉴物理学上的耦合容量系数模型和改进的耦合协调度函数,评价三者之间的耦合协调度及其演变规律和作用机理.评价结果表明:(1)各系统城市化水平持续提高,且表现出明显的阶段性特征,整个城市化过程是一个由人口导向型城市化向经济导向型城市化演变的过程;(2)人口、经济、空间城市化彼此之间的耦合协调性整体水平都较高,且处在不断提升的过程中,并表现出与城市化划分基本一致的阶段性特征;(3)人口-经济-空间城市化及其彼此间的耦合协调性在很大程度上受国家宏观调控、政策体制改革以及地方政府行为等的影响和作用.最后就北京市的人口-经济-空间城市化协调可持续发展提出建议.人口-经济-空间城市化协调性分析与评价可以作为城市规划明晰城市发展阶段和质量、确定城市合理规模、安排规划实施时序、制定对策建设以及检验规划效应的新依据.%Firstly, this paper constructs the evaluation index system on the basis of the concepts of population, economy and space urbanization; secondly, it measures the urbanization level of each system of Beijing from 1990 to 2008; thirdly, it evaluates the coupling degree between three systems and its evolution rule and mechanism. The conclusions are as follows: (1) urbanization level of each system improves continuously and shows an obviously phased characteristic, 1990-1999 belongs to the economy-oriented urbanization, 2000-2005 is the space-oriented urbanization , 2006-2008 returns to the economy-oriented urbanization, but the whole process is a transition from population-oriented torneconomy-oriented. (2)The overall level of coupling coordination between population, economy, space urbanization is high and constant in the process of ascension, and shows a consistency with the staged characteristics of urbanization; (3) population -economic - space urbanization and the coupling coordination between each other are largely affected by national macroeconomic regulation, policy system reform and local government behavior etc; (4) It puts forward suggestions for the coordinated and sustainable development of Beijing's population -economic - space urbanization. Analysis and evaluation of the coordination of population, economic and space urbanization could help us in urban planning to clarify city development stage and quality, determine a reasonable scale, arrange urban plan implementation sequence, establish countermeasure suggestions, and inspect planning effects etc.

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