基于马尔科夫过程的卫生装备配置研究

摘要

目的:通过伤员伤势转换分析和卫生装备随机服务过程分析,解决考虑伤员伤势分布随机性和动态性条件下的卫生装备配置问题.方法:通过分析伤员状态转换过程,利用泊松随机过程和马尔科夫链构建救治机构伤员队列变化模型,分析救治机构卫生装备随机服务过程,规划服务规则,通过专家调研获取状态转移参数,建立伤势自然转移参数和救治后伤员伤势更新向量,通过模拟工具求解卫生装备配置问题.结果:以野战医疗所急救台为分析对象,通过实例数据和模拟计算,求解出急救台最优配置,急救台配置求解结果与当前普遍实行的配置接近.结论:基于马尔科夫链过程对卫生装备配置进行求解,能够反映伤势变化和救治队列的波动性,求解结果较为可靠,求解方法具有较高的通用性和实用性,可以为卫生装备配置和优化等研究提供必要的方法支撑.%Objective To explore medical equipment allocation with considerations on randomly distributed and dynamic injury conditions by analyzing injury conditions transition and medical equipment stochastic service process.Methods A casualty array change model was established by injury conditions evolution analysis,Poisson process and Markov chain.Medical equipment stochastic service processes in medical facilities were probed,and the service rules were constructed.Expert investigation was carried out to acquire conditions transition indexes and to determine the vectors for conditions transition without manual intervention and their changes after treatment,then simulation tools were used to optimize medical equipment allocation.Results The emergency treatment table in some field medical station was considered as the subject,and the optimum allocation was proposed for emergency treatment table with practical data and simulation calculation.Conclusion The emergency treatment table allocation proposed was similar to the actual one in the medical station.Markov-process-based medical equipment allocation responses injury conditions changes and the fluctuation of treatment sequence,which has the result reliable and the method versatile and practical,and lays a foundation for medical equipment allocation and optimization.