天然橡胶生产国产量波动对全球天然橡胶总产量波动的影响

摘要

运用方差分解法研究1980～2009年间马来西亚、印尼、泰国、印度、越南和中国6个主产国以及其余国家天然橡胶产量波动对全球总产量波动的影响.结果表明:各主产国生产波动具有明显的区域独立性,并成为加剧全球总产量波动的主导因素;马来西亚、印尼、泰国产量波动的共振性逐渐加强,对全球总产量波动的总贡献率变化呈U型特征,其中马来西亚逐渐南平抑全球波动的重要力量变为放大器;其余国家逐渐成为平抑全球波动的主力.%The variance decomposition was used to explore the relationships of production fluctuations between the NR producing countries and the aggregate in 1980-2009.The results showed that production fluctuations of the major NR producing countries have apparently regional independence, and increased the aggregate fluctuations.The production fluctuation of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand resonated increasingly, and its contribution rate to the aggregate fluctuation had U-shaped dynamic characteristics,and the fluctuation of Malaysia was the impotent power to amplify the aggregate fluctuation.The other countries gradually became the main force to stabilize the aggregate fluctuation.