TRENDS IN SEASONALITY OF NATURAL RUBBER PRODUCTION IN MAJOR PRODUCING COUNTRIES: A DISAGGREGATE LEVEL ANALYSIS

摘要

This paper examines the seasonality in the production of natural rubber (NR) and whether it has changed in the major producing countries like Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and India in the context of fall in the production and productivity of NR. Using the monthly data on production of NR and the technique of change-point analysis, the trends in seasonality at aggregate level (over period) and disaggregate level (within months) was examined for the 23 years period from 1991 to 2013. At aggregate level,seasonality in NR production remained the same in these countries over the period. At disaggregate level also the pattern remained the same in Thailand and Malaysia when it displayed significant changes in India and Indonesia since 1998. Changes in production at disaggregate level are indicative of impending changes in the seasonality of NR production in India and Indonesia. Hence, it is imperative to initiate a multidisciplinary investigation to explore the underlying factors for ensuring the sustainability of commercial cultivation of NR in these countries.