热带气旋影响下海南岛卫星降水估计产品的检验分析

摘要

Two quantitative precipitation estimation （QPE） datasets based on the FY2D and GMS-5 infrared brightness temperature provided by national weather satellite center and Shanghai Typhoon Institute from 2007 to 2011 is compared statistically with direct measuremonts from surface gauge rainfall data during the periods affected by TCs in Hainan Island. It is found that whatever 6 h rainfall or 24 h rainfall, the QPE from FY2D meteorological satellite has skills a little better than that from GMS-5 meteorological satellite. The two QPE products are likely to better reflect the TC-related heavy rainfall of daily precipitation above 100 ram, which could be useful for operational or research reference. For the contribution of the abilities of satellite retrievals for 6 h rainfall in Hainan Island, the skill of FY2D in the westem island is better than that in the eastem while the skill of GMS-5 in the northem island is better than that in the southem. QPE related tropical cyclones landed in the northern island give a little higher score in the TS grade than that landed in the southern island. Case analyses show that both FY2D and GMS-5 considerably underestimate the heavy rainfall caused by the meso-and micro-scale systems.%利用2007~2011年海南热带气旋过程的地面站雨量资料．对国家卫星气象中心和中国气象局上海台风所基于FY2D和GMS-5红外亮温资料研发的卫星降水估计产品进行定量评估。结果表明：无论是6h还是24h降水，FY2D降水估计产品对海南热带气旋降水的反演精度要比GMS-5降水估计产品高：FY2D和GMS-5卫星估计降水具有估测大暴雨以上强降水的优势，对热带气旋强降水预报业务具有参考性：对6h强降水估计能力的空间分布而言，FY2D降水估计产品估测能力为岛西高，岛东低。GMS-5降水估计产品的估测能力为岛北高．岛南低；登陆海南岛北部地区的热带气旋降水估计技巧比登陆海南岛南部地区的热带气旋高：两种卫星降水估计产品对中小尺度强降水极值估计偏弱。