气候系统模式对于北极海冰模拟分析

摘要

We evaluated the capability of simulation of Arctic sea ice for the 5 th phase of the Coupled Model Inter-com-parison Project (CMIP5) models in comparison with satellite data.The results showed that the spatial distribution of sea ice and the seasonal change characteristics are captured well by most of the models.Observations from 1979 to 2005 have revealed a decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice and this was simulated by all the models, but with large differences in magnitude.In response to a 1.0℃increase in surface air temperature, the extent of Arctic sea ice reduces by 0.4 ×106 km2 , whereas the uncertainties of the climate models indicate a decrease of ice extent ran-ging from 0.62—1.68 ×106 km2 for a similar temperature rise.%利用全球耦合模式对比计划第五阶段（ CMIP5）模拟试验的结果，并与观测资料对比分析，评估了CMIP5模式对北极海冰的模拟效果。结果表明：多数模式可以较好地模拟出北极海冰的空间分布以及季节变化特征。1979—2005年北极海冰迅速减少，所有模式均模拟出北极海冰减少的趋势，但减少趋势大小与观测差别较大。在全球变化的背景下，全球地表气温升高1℃，北极海冰的面积减少1．02×106 km2，而在模式中减少的北极海冰面积在0．62× 106—1．68×106 km2之间，说明模式对于北极海冰的模拟仍然存在很多不确定性。