药品能否成为畅销药通常是制药企业在进行产品研发时最关注的问题.文中随机抽取1993-2009年FDA批准的所有新分子实体(NMEs)和新生物制品(BLAs)中的100个药物,按所选取的代理评价指标进行相关和回归分析.是否老年病、是否富贵病、是否难治愈疾病以及药品的首度研发药企是否世界500强公司这4个指标以高拟合度(R2=0.834)构成预测药物是否畅销的模型.所选取的评价指标对预测未来畅销药有一定参考意义.%Whether a drug can become a blockbuster is a generally concerning problem for pharmaceutical companies when they deal with product research and development. This paper randomly selected 100 drugs from all NMEs and BLAs approved by FDA from 1993 to 2009 as the study samples, which are evaluated by the selected proxy variables (indicators) with further Pearson Chi-Square correlation and logistic regression analysis. It was found that the proxy variables "Aging", "Wealthy" and "Long-suffering" are three major factors affecting the demands while "Brand" is the major factor affecting the substitutability (R2 = 0. 834). The impact factors chosen in this paper will be useful in predicting future blockbusters.
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