高新技术项目组合的双模式风险预警机制研究

摘要

构建了项目组合的风险预警机制,即横向和纵向的双模式风险预警.横向模式是基于项目组合的生命周期性,将其分为项目组合决策、准备、研发、实施、结束5个阶段,分别确定关键风险和因素进行动态风险预警.纵向模式是通过与风险度量相反的程序,建立起3级追溯式项目组合风险预警,将超标的项目组合风险预警具体化到某一特定项目、某2个项目的相互影响或是企业层的管理复杂因素.%A project portfolio risk warning mechanism which includes horizontal and vertical two-way risk warning model is established. Project portfolio is divided into five stages of decision-making, preparation, development, implementation and completion, and key risks and key factors are identified for dynamic warning based on life-cycle attribute in horizontal mode. Vertical mode is built by opposite process of risk measurement, and three retrospective portfolio risk warning system is established. The excessive portfolio risks can be specific to particular project, interactions between two projects or management complexity factor.