顾客时间偏好下基于WCVaR的供应链采购与分销决策集成优化

摘要

在日常运作风险与失效风险并存环境下,通过多源采购、替代源供应和转运等弹性策略,研究决策者风险规避与顾客时间偏好行为下的供应链采购与分销决策集成优化问题,提出相应的随机机会约束规划模型及求解方法.研究发现:基于WCVaR风险测度的优化模型,能够使供应链利润与服务水平表现出更高的鲁棒性,从而更好地满足风险规避型决策者的决策需求;与下游分销环节的不确定性相比,风险规避型决策者应当更加重视上游采购环节不确定性的应对与控制;产品流行期的延长和顾客对产品长期与短期价值感知敏感程度的降低,都会促进供应链收益能力的提高.此外,根据敏感性分析的结论,对风险规避型决策者在顾客时间偏好下的采购与分销决策提出建议.%Under the uncertainties of both business-as-usual factors and catastrophic events,the supply chain procurement and distribution integrated optimization problem is studied based on the decision maker's risk aversion and customers' time preference behaviors using resilient strategies including multi-sourcing,alternative source supply and transshipment.A stochastic chance constrained programming model is proposed as along with the solutions.The results show that the optimization model based on WCVaR measure is more suitable for risk averse decision makers as it makes the supply chain profit and service level more robust.The risk averse decision makers should pay more attention to the response and control of the upstream uncertainty rather than that of the downstream.Both the extension of product epidemic period and the decrease of the customer's sensitivity to long-term and short-term product value perception contribute to the supply chain profitability.Decision suggestions are also provided to practitioners according to sensitivity analysis.