2005-2011年中国大陆地区梅毒疫情时空分布

摘要

目的：分析2005-2011年中国大陆地区梅毒疫情的时空分布特征。方法基于2005-2011年全国31个省、直辖市和自治区(未包括台湾省、香港和澳门特别行政区)网络报告的梅毒疫情数据和人口信息,建立地理信息数据库,导入 GeoDa 0.95i和 SaTScan 9.1.1软件,进行全局、局部空间自相关分析和时空扫描聚类分析,确定梅毒时空热点区域。结果2005-2011年中国大陆地区报告的梅毒总病例数为1841217例,年发病率为20.07/10万。2005-2011年中国大陆地区梅毒病例时空呈明显聚集性分布。除2011年,2005-2010年全局型空间自相关系数 Moran’s I均具有统计学意义。局部自相关分析结果提示,2005-2009年江苏、上海、浙江、福建处于(高,高)区域,2006-2008年重庆处于(高,低)区域,2011年中国大陆所有地区均未处于(高,高)区域。时空扫描聚类分析,发现1个一级聚类区域和5个二级聚类区域。一级聚类区域位于2009-2011年的上海、浙江地区；5个二级聚类区域分别为2009-2011年的广东、广西及海南地区,2009-2011年的新疆地区,2010-2011年的辽宁、吉林地区,2011年的甘肃、宁夏、陕西、四川、重庆、山西及内蒙古地区,2008-2010年的北京、天津地区。结论梅毒发病存在明显的时空聚集,各时空聚集区将为我国制定梅毒防控策略和评价防控措施效果提供参考。%Objective To investigate the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of syphilis epidemic in Main-land China in 2005-2011.Methods Geographic information system was established based on the data of syphilis epidemic and demographic information from online reporting system of 3 1 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of Mainland China from 2005 to 2011,global indication of spatial autocorrelation(GISA),local indication of spatial autocorrelation (LISA),and spatial-temporal cluster analysis were conducted by GeoDa 0.95i and SaTScan 9.1 .1 software,high risk areas of spatial-temporal distribution of syphilis were determined.Results The number of syphilis in Mainland China in 2005-2011 were 1 841 217 cases,annual incidence was 20.07/100 000,suggesting a sign of obvious cluster distribution.Except 2011,GISA coefficient Moran’s I were statistically different.Accord-ing to LISA analysis,Jiangsu,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Fujian lay in high-high region in 2005-2009,Chongqing lay in high-low region in 2006-2008,and in 2011,no area was found in high-high region.Spatio-temporal cluster anal-ysis showed that the most likely cluster was in Shanghai and Zhejiang (2009-2011);the secondary cluster distribu-ted in five areas,including Guangdong,Guangxi and Hainan (2009-2011),Xinjiang (2009-2011),Liaoning and Jilin (2010-2011),Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Sichuan,Chongqing,Shanxi and Inner Mongolia (2011),Beijing and Tianjin (2008-2010).Conclusion Significant spatio-temporal cluster pattern is found for the distribution of syphilis in mainland China,which can be meaningful for pertinent control.