某高校甲型 H1N1流感传播元胞自动机模拟研究

摘要

Objective To explore the application value of cellular automata(CA)in simulating the epidemic spread of out-break of influenza A(H1N1).Methods The publications regarding influenza A(H1N1)from January 2009 to March 2015 were collected from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI),epidemiological data of H1N1 were retrieved ac-cording to inclusion criteria,the Matlab 7.0 software was adopted to construct CA model for simulating and analyzing the epidemic of H1N1 occurred in a university in Chongqing between October 12 and November 20,2009.Results There were a total of 17 820 students in this university,the epidemic of influenza lasted 40 days in 2009;When the parameter,the ef-fective infection rate was 0.04,the model of CA fit well,and gave estimate for basic reproduction number (R0 )1.202. Conclusion CA has certain reliability in simulating epidemics of airborne infectious diseases,it can provide reference for the prevention and control of disease.%目的：探索元胞自动机（CA）在模拟分析甲型 H1N1流感暴发传播中的应用价值。方法通过中国知识基础设施工程（CNKI）查询2009年1月—2015年3月间公开发表的甲型 H1N1流感相关文献，按纳入标准选择并提取流感疫情数据，并以重庆市某综合性大学2009年10月12日—11月20日发生的一起甲型 H1N1流感疫情为数据原型，利用 Matlab 7．0软件构建 CA 模型，对疫情进行模拟和分析。结果该高校共有在校学生17820名，2009年流感疫情持续时间为40 d，当近距离有效感染发病率为0．04时，CA 模型对此次疫情的模拟情况最好，基本再生数为1．202。结论CA 在模拟一定条件下经空气传播性疾病的流行特征方面具有一定的可靠性，可为疾病的预防与控制提供参考依据。