基于风险评分模型的社区老年性痴呆预测研究

摘要

Objective To predict the early diagnosis and risk of Alzheimer's disease(AD) in community population with risk sco-ring model. Methods The city community was selected as the research field,nested case-control study was used. The age,MMSE,Aβ42, Aβ42:Aβ40,ADL,AD7c-NTP and other risk factors including urine and the incidence of AD related biological genetic,environmental and personal the life style for the parameters were used to establish the risk score model. Results The area under the ROC curve of the risk score model (AUC) was 0.838,with a sensitivity of 80.8% and a specificity of 75.7%. Conclusions The risk score model is suitable for prediction and early diagnosis of AD.%目的 利用风险评分(RS)模型对社区人群老年性痴呆(AD)的早期诊断和发病风险进行预测.方法 选择某城市社区进行巢式病例对照研究,筛选出包括AD发病相关生物遗传、环境、个人生活行为方式的风险因子为参数,建立RS数学模型.结果 RS模型受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)为0.838,灵敏度为80.8%,特异度为75.7%.结论 RS模型适用于AD发病的预测和早期诊断.