单沟泥石流灾害风险简易评价模型

摘要

Acoording to the curren frame, through qualitative analys combined with quantitative evaluation, this paper probed to establish the fast assessment model of the single gully debris-flow risk. The model was considered the probability of destroy, the strength of landslide, elements at risk, and vulnerability. Based on the geological disaster preventing and controlling plan, it proposed the risk management concept model of debris-flow. The debris-flow data in landslide in Xinping county, Yunnan Province, was employed to check the model. The checking results from this model give the relative level of the real risk of the single gully debris-flow, and provide the technology basis for classification of administration of the single gully debris-flow.%按照灾害风险评价的一般框架,定性定量相结合,运用沟谷、降水、成灾因子、遭遇特征与易损程度等五项指标,尝试提出单沟泥石流灾害风险简易评价模型,并结合防治规划,提出了单沟泥石流灾害风险管理对策建议.采用云南新平县泥石流灾害调查数据,开展了实例校验,结果表明,该模型基本反映了沟谷泥石流灾害的相对风险水平,可为现阶段管理提供更加明确的分级依据.