艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法研究进展

摘要

近年来,由于艾滋病监测系统的不断完善以及监测资料来源的多样性,艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法已成为了解艾滋病流行状况及预测发展趋势的重要工具,为此国内外学者采用了多种方法对艾滋病疫情进行了估计与预测.本研究对目前常用艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法的基本原理、适用条件、应用、优点及局限性进行综述,为疫情估计方法的选择与应用提供参考.%Due to the continuous improvement on HIV surveillance system and the diversity of data sources,various methodologies on estimation and projection of HIV/AIDS present greater contribution in exploring the natural history and related burden of HIV in the future.Different kinds of methods have been developed by professionals,both at home and abroad.This paper reviews the rationale,requirement,application,strength and limitation of the related methodologies that have been widely used in this field,to provide reference and evidence for the application and selection of related methodologies in the future.