应用空间自相关分析研究广西壮族自治区肝癌的空间异质性分布特征

摘要

目的 应用空间自相关分析研究广西壮族自治区肝癌的空间分布特征.方法 利用全区2000-2007年肝癌资料,求出各市县肝癌8年平均发病率;应用地理信息系统中的空间统计分析模块进行空间自相关分析;应用Map Info 8.0软件绘制疾病专题图.结果 2000-2007年广西肝癌年均发病率存在空间自相关,全域空间自相关系数Moran's 1=0.34,P＜0.01;全域空间自相关系数G=O.77,P＜0.01;Moran's,系数图上下波动,有四处隆起,主要在微观尺度(空间间隔为1～3,实际尺度45～135 km)及宏观尺度(空间间隔16～18,实际尺度720～800 km)上存在聚集性分布,但在空间间隔为1.4,实际尺度约60km时,空间自相关有波峰,即空间分布有最大的自相关性;疾病专题图显示肝癌高发区主要聚集在桂西南及桂南沿海地区,桂北为低发区.结论 2000-2007年广西肝癌的空间格局非随机分布,存在明显的聚集区.%Objective To study the spatial distribution characteristics of liver cancer in Guangxi so as to provide evidence for the development of congol and prevention on liver cancer.Methods The average eight year morbidity was computed,using the rates of liver cancer in 2000-2007.The spatial statistics module of GIS was used to conduct spatial autocorrelation analysis.and the disease mapping Was drawn,using the Map Info 8.0 software.Results The average morbidity rate Was clustered in Guangxi in the past eight years.with Moran's I index as 0.34 and P value below 0.01.G index appeared to be 0.77 and the Pvalue Was below 0.01.Moran's I correlogram lifled up in four spaces,specifically,the cluster took place in both nlacro-scale(one to three spatial intervals,45 to 135 km real Scale)and micro-scale(16 to 18 spatial intervals,720 to 800 km real scale).When the spatial interval became 14 and real scale was 60 km.the spatial distribution of liver cancer showed the most intensive autocorrelation.Most of the regions with high morbidity would be clustered in the southwest and southern parts,along the Coastal areas of Guangxi while the regions with low morbidity clustered in the northern part of Guangxi.Conclusion Liver cancer was found un-randorely distributed and geographitally clustered in Guangxi in 2000-2007.