安徽省2004-2006年疟疾环境影响因素研究

摘要

Objective To analyze the determinants of malaria in Anhui province during the year of 2004-2006.Methods A GIS-based database of malaria at the township scale of Anhui province was established,using remote sensing and spatial analysis technologies.Methods on statistical analysis,principal component analysis combined with logistic regression analysis were synthetically used to analyze the association between malaria and environmental factors.Results Malaria epidemics in Anhui province during 2004-2006 mainly occurred in the northern districts of Huai River,and the epidemics had become more serious yearly.The determinants of malaria at the township scale mainly included factors as temperature,rainfall,normalized difference vegetable index and elevation.If the lowest temperature in a year,which appeared the fourth principal component of the temperature index series,increased by one unit,the probability of incidence of malaria would decrease by 33%.If the total annual rainfall,which was the first principal component of the rainfall index series,increased by one unit,the probability would decrease by 27%.If the elevation increased by 10 meters,the probability would decrease by 2%.However,the relationship between Normalized Difference Vegetable Index (NDVI) and the probability of incidence of malaria was different.If the NDVI had a one unit increase,the probability would increase 3.28 times.Conclusion The northern districts of Huai River during 2004-2006 appeared to be a new spatio-temporal cluster when reemergence of malaria epidemics had occurred in Auhui province since 2000.Terrain and physiognomy,nature and circumstances factors,such as temperature and rainfall had affected the incidence rates of malaria.Our research data from Auhui province would provide some important references to the discovery of main reasons on the reemergence of malaria epidemics since 2000,especially in the central geographic areas of China.%目的 研究安徽省2004-2006年疟疾传播的相关环境影响因素.方法 采用空间分析技术建立安徽省乡镇尺度疟疾疫情环境影响因素空间数据库,综合应用主成分分析和logistic回归分析方法对数据进行统计学处理.结果 2004-2006年安徽省疟疾疫情呈现地区聚集性,淮北地区疫情逐年加重.乡镇尺度疟疾疫情主要与当地温度、降雨量、归一化差值植被指数和海拔等因素有关."年最低气温(温度系列指标的第4主成分)"每升高1个单位,疟疾发生的可能性减少33%;"年降雨总量(降雨量系列指标的第1主成分)"每增加1个单位,疟疾发生的可能性将减少27%;"海拔"每升高10m,疟疾发生的可能性减少2%;而归一化差值植被指数与疟疾发生可能性的关系与前3个因素不同,每增加1个单位,疟疾发生的可能性将增加3.28倍.结论 2004-2006年安徽省淮北地区是该省2000年以来疟疾疫情回升后出现的新时空聚集区,淮北地区的地形地貌、温度、降雨量等自然环境因素影响其疟疾发病水平,这将为进一步探索研究2000年后以安徽省为代表的中国中部地区疟疾回升的主要原因提供重要参考.