温度在北京市空气污染中对循环、呼吸系统疾病急诊影响的修饰效应

摘要

目的 分析温度在空气污染短期暴露对循环、呼吸系统疾病急诊影响的修饰效应.方法 2010-2011年北京市循环系统和呼吸系统疾病逐日急诊资料,气象监测数据及空气污染指数(API)资料均来源于国家人口与健康科学数据共享平台.将日均温度进行分层,建立分层的时间序列模型.结果 循环系统、呼吸系统疾病急诊人数P50分别为210和80例,API的P50为76,日均温度P50为14.2℃;空气污染对循环系统疾病急诊影响当天(lag0)即表现出效应最大值.空气污染对呼吸系统疾病急诊的影响在滞后第5天(lag5)时达到效应最高值.API对循环系统疾病急诊的影响在超低温(日均气温＜-4.9℃)时效应出现最大值,即API每升高10个单位,RR值(95％CI)达到1.067(1.054 ～ 1.080);API对呼吸系统疾病急诊的影响在高温(日均气温为24.4～28.5℃)及超高温时(日均气温＞28.5℃)有明显增加,API每升高10个单位,RR值分别为1.021(95％CI:1.015 ～ 1.028)、1.006(95％CI:1.003 ～ 1.008).结论 温度在空气污染与循环系统、呼吸系统疾病的关系中存在修饰效应.%Objective To analyze the temperature modification effect on emergency room visits for circulatory and respiratory diseases caused by air pollution,in Beijing,Methods Data on both circulatory and respiratory diseases in 2010 and 2011 were collected,Both meteorological and air pollutants related data were obtained from the National Scientific Data Sharing Platform for Population and Health.By using the stratified time-series models,we analyzed the effects of air pollution on emergency room visits for circulatory and respiratory diseases under different temperature zones,from 2010 to 2011,in Beijing.Results Low temperature (daily average temperature ＜-4.9 ℃) seemed to have obviously enhanced the effect of air pollution index (API) on emergency room visits for circulatory diseases,Under 10 units of API,the relative risks and confidence interval appeared as 1.067 (1.054-1.080).However,high (daily average temperature between 24.4 ℃ and 28.5 ℃) and extra-high temperature (daily average temperature ＞28.5 ℃) could enhance the effect of API on emergency room visits for respiratory diseases,Under 10 units of API,the relative risks and confidence interval were 1.021 (1.015-1.028) and 1.006 (1.003-1.008),respectively.Conclusion Temperature seemed to have modified the association between air pollution and both circulatory and respiratory diseases.