Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus and influencing factors in Yunnan province,and provide further information for the prevention and control of scrub typhus.Methods Based on the incidence data of scrub typhus reported in Yunnan from 2006 to 2013,the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus were analyzed and related environmental factors were identified with panel negative binomial regression model.Results A total of 8 980 scrub typhus cases were reported during 2006-2013 in Yunnan.The average annual incidence was 2.46/100 000,with an uptrend observed.Natural focus expansion was found,affecting 71.3％ of the counties in 2013.The epidemic mainly occurred in summer and autumn with the incidence peak during July-October.The annual incidence was higher in females than in males.More cases occurred in children and farmers,the proportions of cases in farmers and pre-school aged children showed an obvious increase.Panel negative binomial regression model indicated that the transmission risk of scrub typhus was positive associated with monthly temperature and monthly relative humidity.Furthermore,an "U" pattern between the risk and the increased coverage of cropland and grassland as well as an "inverted-U" pattern between the risk and increased coverage of shrub were observed.Conclusion It is necessary to strengthen the scrub typhus surveillance in warm and moist areas as well as the areas with high coverage of cropland and grassland in Yunnan,and the health education in children and farmers who are at high risk.%目的 分析近年来云南省恙虫病流行病学特征及流行相关因素.方法 收集2006-2013年云南省恙虫病报告疫情资料,统计分析其“三间分布”特征,并应用地理信息技术(GIS)在县区尺度上使用面板负二项回归模型分析其流行相关因素.结果 2006-2013年云南省共报告恙虫病病例8 980例,年均发病率2.46/10万,年发病率呈显著上升趋势,疫源地范围不断扩大,报告发病乡镇增至71.3％.疫情主要发生于夏秋季,高峰为7-10月.女性年均发病率高于男性,儿童多发,职业分布以农民为主,且病例中农民和学前儿童的构成比呈现上升趋势.面板负二项回归模型显示云南省恙虫病的流行风险随着月均温度和相对湿度的升高而增加,随耕地和草地面积的增加而先降后升,随着灌木面积的增加而先升后降.结论 应加强对云南省温暖湿润地区以及耕地、草地面积较大地区恙虫病的监测,尤其是针对儿童及农民等高发人群.
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