Objective: To analyze the incidence trends of esophageal and gastric cancer in Cixian based on tumor registry data from 1988 to 2007.Methods: The esophageal and gastric cancer incidence in Cixian from 1988 to 2007 was obtained from the C15.0-C15.9 and C16.0-C16.9 databases.The annual percent change ( APC ) was calculated using the y = α + βx + ε linear model.Results:The overall incidence of esophageal cancer displayed a downward trend.The APC of the total incidence in men and women combined was -1.15％ ( P = 0.002 ).In women, APC = -1.47％ ( P = 0.001 ), and in men, APC = -0.94％ ( P = 0.119 ).The trend in the incidence of gastric cancer increased.The overall gastric cancer APC in both sexes was 1.3％, with 1.5％ for men, and 1.3％ for women, all of which are statistically significant ( P = 0.083 ).For the sub-site, cardiac cancer exhibited the highest significant increase, accounting for 40.0％ of all gastric cancer cases.The APC of the total incidence in men and women was 8.07％, with 6.51％ for women, and 8.07％ for men.All statistical calculations were significantly different ( P ＜ 0.001 ).The incidence showed a downward trend when the anatomic site was associated with esophageal and cardiac cancer, but the difference was not statistically significant.Conclusion: For the past 20 years, the incidence of gastric cardia cancer in Cixian has been increasing, whereas that for esophageal cancer has been declining.The increase in the incidence of gastric cancer is closely related to the ICD coding rules.%目的:根据磁县肿瘤登记处数据,分析1988年-2007年食管癌胃癌发病趋势变化.方法:截取1988年-2007年发病数据库ICD编码C15.0～C15.9和C16.0～C16.9,采用y=α+βχ+ε线性模型,计算年度变化百分比(APC).结果:食管癌发病总体呈现下降趋势,其男女合计总发病APC=-1.15%,P=0.002;女性APC=-1.47%,P=0.008;男性APC=-0.94%,P=0.119.胃癌发病呈上升趋势,男女合计总体胃癌APC=1.3%,男性APC=1.5%,差异均有统计学意义;女性APC=1.3%,P=0.083.亚部位分析贲门癌发病上升最为明显,占胃癌发病总数的40.0%,男女合计总发病APC=8.07%.其中女性6.51%,男性8.07%,差异均有统计学意义.食管癌、贲门癌2个解剖部位肿瘤合并分析,发病趋势下降,但是差异无统计学意义.结论:磁县近20年贲门癌发病增长最快,而食管癌发病下降,胃癌发病的上升与ICD编码规则关系密切.
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