城镇化与粮食生产效率关系的VAR模型分析

摘要

目的:中国粮食生产实现了"十二连增",我国城镇化率也在持续提升并已在2011年突破了50%,然而在两者不断增长的背后却隐含着复杂的相互影响关系,文章利用我国1991～2014年城镇化率和主要粮食单位面积产量的时间序列数据,研究两者之间的关系.方法:通过变量间的多项检验后,构建了VAR模型,并对城镇化和粮食生产效率之间的关系进行了协整分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析等.分析结果认为:城镇化和粮食生产效率两者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系.其中,城镇化对粮食生产效率有显著的正向影响,且该影响作用随着时间的增加效果减缓;粮食生产效率对城镇化的影响作用呈现先负后正的波动状态.结论:结合我国实际政策背景和理论环境进行了进一步深入剖析,造成该结果的深层原因主要是耕地面积、农业劳动力、户籍制度、农业经营规模、先进科学技术等要素,最后分别从城镇、农业和政府3个视角提出了相关的对策建议.%China′s food production has realized "twelve-year consecutive growth", and China′s urbanization rate also continues to ascend and have excessed 50% in 2011.However, behind the over-growing situation of food production and urbanization, there is complicated interactional relationship between them.Based on the data of the urbanization rate and the main grain yield per unit from 1991 to 2014, this paper studied the relationship between food production and urbanization using VAR model after a number of test variables, co-integration analysis, impulse response analysis, and variance decomposition analysis.The results showed that there was long-run equilibrium relationship between urbanization and food production efficiency.Urbanization had a positive and significant impact on food production efficiency, which declined as time went by.The impact of food production efficiency on urbanization was negative and then became positive afterwards.Combined with the national realistic policy background and theoretical environment, it concluded that the main causes were cultivating land, agricultural labor force, the household registration system, agricultural management scale and advanced science and technology, etc.In the end, it put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions respectively from the three perspectives of township, government and agriculture.