深圳市主要卫生资源预测分析

摘要

Objective:To predict the main health resources in Shenzhen,and put forward the feasible suggestions for Shenzhen health resources planning. Methods:The GM(1,1)model was used to forecast main health resources in Shenzhen. Results:In 2020,beds per thousand permanent population from all health primary health institutions,primary health institutions and social health institutions would be 3.49,0.72 and 0.27,respectively. Compared with the average line of the national guiding goal,they were lower. However,the numbers of practicing doctor(3.34)and licensed nurses (4.79)per thousand permanent population were higher than the national instructional goals. Conclusion:It is suggested that the government increase the investment to basic-level hospitals and make a reasonable plan. It is also proposed that the government guide and encourage social medical,and control the growth of health personnel.%目的：预测分析现阶段深圳市主要卫生资源，为深圳市卫生资源规划提出可行意见。方法：基于GM（1，1）模型对深圳市主要卫生资源进行预测分析。结果：到2020年每千常住人口医疗卫生机构床位数、基层医疗卫生机构床位数、社会办医床位数将分别达到3.49张、0.72张和0.27张，低于《全国医疗卫生服务体系规划纲要（2015—2020年）》制定的全国指导性目标；而每千常住人口执业（助理）医师数、每千常住人口注册护士数为3.34人和4.79人，高于全国指导性目标。结论：政府需加大对基层医院的投入，合理规划；正确引导和激励社会办医，控制卫生人力资源的增长速度。