我国蔬菜价格周期性波动规律分析

摘要

近年来，我国蔬菜价格波动频繁，卖难、买贵现象时有发生。本文采用HP滤波法和BP滤波法，分析了我国2004～2013年蔬菜及主要品种的价格波动规律。通过分析得出，我国蔬菜价格呈总体增长的线性趋势，季节性变化特征明显，无明显随机性波动特征；产区集中的耐贮品种具有较明显的价格波动周期，季节性波动相对明显；产区分散的耐贮品种无明显的价格波动周期，季节性波动较明显；大棚菜和叶菜类价格波动受天气因素影响较大，季节性波动明显，无明显周期波动特征。%During recent years, vegetable prices have been fluctuating frequently in China; and difficult selling and expensive buying has occurred from time to time.By virtue of HP and BP filter methods, this paper quantifies vegetable and its main varieties to find out long-term change factors, seasonal factors, circulating factors and random factors affecting vegetable prices, and then analyzes the law of price fluctuation.The results of analysis indicate that vegetable prices show the linear trend of overall long-term growth, with significant seasonal fluctuation but no evident random fluctuation.Storage tolerant varieties in centralized producing areas have evident price fluctuation cycle with relatively distinct seasonal changes; while those in scattered producing areas have no obvious price fluctuation cycle but with evident seasonal changes.Weather factors exert great influences on price fluctuation of greenhouse vegetables and leafy vegetables, with characteristics of significant seasonal fluctuation but no obvious cyclical fluctuation characteristics.