北京上牌摇号与上海车牌拍卖政策下消费者成本比较

摘要

To relieve the traffic congestion problem in big cities, Beijing and Shanghai governments adopt private car plate lottery and auction policies respectively aiming to limit the increasing of cars. From the policy participants' perspec-tive,this paper estimates the opportunity cost of lottery policy by employing the Duration model. By comparing with that of Shanghai auction method,this research shows how lottery levy cost on policy participants in an implicit way.%北京机动车上牌摇号和上海车牌拍卖是国内两个典型的限制私家车拥有量的交通政策。北京上牌摇号政策为世界治理交通拥堵方式的首例，本文从政策参与者的角度采用持续时间模型( duration models)，计算不同中签率下北京上牌摇号的平均等待时间，并在其基础之上估算摇号带给政策参与人的成本，然后将其与上海车牌拍卖的成本进行比较，为政策评价提供依据。