终端区管制系统运行风险的解释结构模型研究

摘要

The knowledge of risk factors in the operation of air traffic control (ATC) system are the key for the safety of the ATC system .Risk is caused by many factors ,and the occurrence of risk factors and the relationship among the factors is complex .To understand the system risk ,the structure of the risk caused by the risk system should be well studied .By analyzing the composi‐tion and characteristics of the terminal area control system ,the 19 risk factors of the control system were determined .The inter‐action and the hierarchical structure between different factors were analyzed by Interpretative Structural Modeling Method (ISM ) .The model was composed of 4 levels .This study provides a theoretical basis for the prevention of the occurrence of risk in air control system .%为了充分认识管制系统运行中的风险致因因素，了解风险致因构成的风险系统结构，从而制定保障管制系统运行安全的风险控制策略。通过分析终端区管制系统运行的构成和特点，找出管制系统运行的19个风险致因因素，运用解释结构模型方法分析各种因素的作用层次和致因因素间的相互作用关系，得到4个层次并对层次结构进行了分析，为预防终端区管制系统运行风险的发生提供了理论基础。