应对全球气候变化,发展低碳经济已经成为中国发展的必然要求.金融发展在经济增长中起着重要作用,低碳经济发展离不开金融支持.低碳经济的实质是减少碳排放,因而需要厘清金融发展与碳排放之间的关系.通过测算中国1979 - 2008年碳排放的省际数据,建立P - VAR模型研究了中国区域金融发展与碳排放之间的动态关系.结果表明:地区碳排放量、地区金融发展深度和地区金融发展集中度三个变量之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系.脉冲响应分析结果显示:碳减排具有自我激励的性质；金融发展的深化、金融发展集中度的变化均对碳减排具有重要影响；区域金融发展的深化对人均碳排放具有显著的抑制作用；金融发展集中度的变化对碳减排的影响十分复杂,其变化若不能促进金融发展深度的提高,则可能阻碍碳减排.%In order to cope with international climate change, developing a low-carbon economy has become a basic national policy in China. The development of the financial sector plays an important role in economic growth and a low-carbon economy can not develop well without financial support. The essence of low-carbon economy is to minimize carbon emission. Therefore, it is very important to understand the correlation between financial development and carbon emission. This paper first identities carbon emission from 1979 to 2008 based on the data from multiple provincial government agencies and establishes a P-VAR model that reflects the dynamic relationship between the regional financial development and carbon emission. The results show that there is a stable long-term complementary correlation among regional carbon emissions, regional financial growth and regional financial concentration. The impulse response analysis indicates that the reduction of carbon emission has the capability of self-adjustment, and an increased financial growth and concentration have a significant impact on carbon reduction. The further development of the financial sector can significantly decrease per capita carbon emission while the degree of financial concentration has a mixed impact on it. If the increased financial concentration can not stimulate financial growth, it would offset carbon emission reduction.
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