石油峰值、能源投资回报值与经济增长关系研究

摘要

Under the circumstance of which energy consumption have significant influence on economic growth ,the paper provide EROI to confirm the relationship between oil and economic growth .It proves that the relationship between EROI of oil and oil price is negative exponential ,and when the EROI decrease to below 10∶1 ,the relationship turns to nonlinear .EROI of oil have comparable relationship to the profit of oil companies .Global EROI has fallen to a low level of about 16∶1 ,and the level of EROI of China is lower to the security line 10∶1 ,along with the global peak oil is approaching ,Chinese economic growth facing low oil EROI ,high cost of oil enterprises and oil price impact on Chinese economic grow th ,the negative impact on the local oil company profits will significantly expand .%在能源消费对经济增长显著影响的背景下，本文引入能源投资回报值（EROI）来探讨石油与经济增长的关系，通过研究表明，石油的EROI值与油价呈反向关指数系，而当 EROI值下降至10∶1以下，两者为非线性关系，且EROI值与石油公司的利润率之间存在可比关系。全球的石油EROI值已降至16∶1左右的低水平，对于石油供应短缺的我国而言，EROI值更低至安全警戒线10∶1的水平，随着全球石油峰值的临近，中国的经济增长面临着低石油EROI值，石油企业的高成本，国际油价上涨对中国经济增长的冲击作用，对本土石油企业利润的负面影响也会显著扩大。