农民分化对农户农地流转意愿的影响分析——基于结构方程模型的估计

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of farmer differentiation on farm household's willingness in transferring their farmland.The structural equation model is used.The results indicate that 1) features of farmer differentiation was significant at the level of 5%,and the marginal effect of farmer differentiation,i.e.,one unit higher,the probability of the willingness will increase 0.634 unit;2) the marginal effect of professional and economic differentiation are 0.394 and 0.358 unit respectively;3) among other observable variables,age,education,non-agricultural skill,numbers of agricultural labor,recognition for stability of farmland property rights,the role of farmland in providing social security,and whether participating in social pension are all significantly positive.It is concluded that the characteristics of different farmer stratums must be paid attention when the policy of farmland transfer is made.Meanwhile,we should actively promote the rationalization of farmers' professional structure and gradually build the urban-rural integrated social security system.%研究目的：分析农民分化对农地流转意愿的影响效应。研究方法：结构方程模型（SEM）。研究结果：（1）农民分化特征对农地流转意愿的影响在5%水平上显著,而且农民分化特征每提高一个单位,农户农地流转意愿就会增加0.634个单位;（2）在反映农民分化的三个可观测变量中,职业分化和经济分化程度每提高一个单位,农户进行农地流转的概率就会分别增加0.394和0.358个单位;（3）反映其他潜变量的可观测变量中,年龄、文化程度、是否具有非农就业技能、家庭农业劳动力人数、对农地产权稳定性的认知、流转地在养老保障中的作用和是否参加社会养老保障等变量对农地流转意愿具有显著影响效应。研究结论：农地流转政策要注意区分不同阶层农民特点,积极促进农民各阶层职业结构的合理化,逐步实现城乡一体化的社会保障制度,弱化土地的社会保障职能。