东明县涝洼地整治项目资源环境效应预警

摘要

研究目的：以山东省东明县涝洼地整治项目作为研究区，尝试构建土地整治资源环境效应的预警指标与模型，评估土地整治对资源环境所产生的风险。研究方法：专家咨询法，极限条件法，层次分析法，综合指数法。研究结果：（1）土地整治资源环境效应预警需将整治后的状态预警与整治的演化方向预警进行综合，按照极限条件法，两警相权其重；（2）研究区土地整治资源环境总效应在整治后的状态和整治的演化方向两方面均属于无警状态，单项效应中资源效应和环境效应的综合警情为无警，景观效应由于整治后的状态属于轻警，演化方向属于中警，则综合警情为中警。研究区在表征环境效应和景观效应的单项因子中出现了不同程度的警情。研究结论：研究区实证表明，资源环境效应预警方法可行；研究区针对出现的警情，需要从农田景观塑造和生态化沟渠道路设计等方面对规划设计方案进行优化。%　　The purpose of this study is to develop a pre-warning system for the resource-environment effects of land consolidation aiming to evaluate the risks of land consolidation, using a low-lying land consolidation project in Dongming County of Shandong Province as a study case. Methods employed include Delphi method, AHP method, limit condition method and comprehensive index method. The paper found that the pre-warning of post-consolidation status and evolution direction were integrated, and the result of the pre-warning was obtained according to the limit condition of the resource-environment effects of land consolidation. Meanwhile, the integrated resource-environment effects of land consolidation were at the none level after the consolidation. The integrated warning of resource-environment effects was also at the none level in terms of both single indexes. However, the integrated warning of landscape effect was at middle level because the evolution direction was approaching the mid-level risk. Moreover, warnings exist at different degrees in terms of different single factors regarding the general environmental effect and landscape effect in the case study area. It is concluded that the pre-warning method of resource-environment effects is useful. The planning scheme should be optimized in the respects of farmland landscape construction and ecological ditch road design according to the predicted risks in the case study area.