耕地占用与经济增长脱钩关系的倒U型曲线检验：武汉市的实证

摘要

The purpose of the paper is testing whether the decoupling relationship between cultivated land occupation and economic growth presents the inverted U-shape curve through a case study on Wuhan City so as to provide theoretical basis for coordinating the contradiction between cultivated land occupation and economic growth. The methods employed are decoupling theory and low-pass filter. The results show that 1)the decoupling relationship between cultivated land occupation and non-agricultural GDP in Wuhan City presents changes of “weak decoupling-expansion connection-expansion negative decoupling-weak decoupling-expansion connection”, and the elasticity wave curve value accords with kuznets inverted U-shape curve hypothesis. 2)According to the decoupling elasticity wave curve, statistical period can be divided into four stages: 1992-2000, 2001-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2013, and cultivated land protectionpolicy has a significant impact on the decoupling relationship between cultivated land occupation and economic growth. The conclusion is that the decoupling relationship between cultivated land occupation and non-agricultural GDP in Wuhan City is inverted U-shape curve and it is located in the declining stage. Strengthening the enforcement of cultivated land protection policy can maintain this kind of relationships in strong decoupling status.%研究目的：以武汉市为研究区域，检验耕地占用与经济增长的脱钩关系是否呈倒U型曲线，为缓解耕地占用与经济增长的矛盾提供理论依据。研究方法：脱钩分析，低通滤波。研究结果：（1）武汉市耕地占用与非农GDP之间的脱钩关系呈现出“弱脱钩—扩张连接—扩张负脱钩—弱脱钩—扩张连接”的变化，脱钩弹性值波动曲线符合库兹涅茨倒U型曲线假说。（2）根据脱钩弹性值波动变化曲线，可以将统计期划分为4个阶段：1992—2000年、2001—2004年、2005—2009年和2010—2013年，且耕地保护政策对耕地占用与经济增长之间的脱钩关系有显著影响。研究结论：武汉市耕地占用与经济增长的脱钩关系呈倒U型曲线，当前武汉市耕地占用与经济增长脱钩关系位于倒U型曲线的下降阶段，通过加强耕地保护政策的实施力度可以使武汉市耕地占用与经济增长的关系维持为强脱钩。