中国地方政府土地租税收入变化对城市建设用地扩张的影响

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the interaction between the local government’s land income and urban construction land expansion. Some econometric methods, such as the co-integration, Granger causality tests, impulse response function and variance decomposition, are used to analyze relevant data of mainland China during the period 1990-2005. Results show that there exists a long-term stable equilibrium in urban construction land expansion, farmland occupation tax and local land revenue. The local government land rent and tax accelerate the expansion of urban construction land and the main driver force is land revenue. The proportion improvement of local government land tax revenue distribution played a role in promoting the urban construction land expansion. Granger causality test shows that there is a significant and positive bilateral relationship between urban construction land changes and farmland occupation tax. It is concluded that local land finance based on short-term land expropriation mainly contributed to the urban landdevelopment, which doomed to be unsustainable, and the farmland occupancy tax system seemed to generate a reverse policy response. Local government should reform irrational financial regime and facilitate land redevelopment to improve the model of urban land operation.%研究目的：考察地方政府土地租税收入与城市建设用地扩张之间的相互影响。研究方法：以中国大陆1990—2013年的地方政府土地收入和建设用地数据进行实证检验，根据协整理论建立向量误差修正模型。研究结果：耕地占用税和国有土地使用权有偿出让收入与城市建设用地扩张具有长期均衡关系，土地租税收入具有促进城市建设用地扩张作用，其中土地出让收入是城市建设用地扩张的主要影响因素，地方政府土地租税收益分成的提高对城市建设用地扩张起到推动作用，建设用地变化仅与耕地占用税收入存在长期的双向因果关系。研究结论：地方政府的土地财政模式具有不可持续性，耕地占用税制度产生反向政策响应，合理调整土地财税体制和盘活存量土地才是地方政府经营城市土地的关键。