采用基于运输周转量的自下而上方法建立了中国水路运输业能源消耗和废气排放测算模型.根据 GDP 增长预测得到未来一段时间内中国内河、沿海和远洋货运周转量,结合IMO(International Maritime Organization)温室气体研究采用的废气排放因子,测算得到2001~2030年中国水路运输业的能源消耗和废气排放.研究结果表明：2001年,中国水路运输业燃油消耗量及 NOx、CO、NMVOC(非甲烷挥发性有机物)、CO2、SO2和PM排放量分别为790.9,63.6,5.9,1.9,2483.2,37.2,4.6万t,到2030年,将分别为5951.8,405.1,16.5,18.3,18743.2,15.5,6.1万t；2001~2030年,中国水路运输业燃油消耗及 CO2和 NOx排放呈逐年增长趋势,年均增长率分别为7.2%、7.2%和6.6%；受国际公约的限制,与硫含量密切相关的SO2和PM排放量自2020年之后显著下降；2001年,中国水路运输业CO2排放量占世界航运排放量的比重在3.2%左右,此后呈逐渐上升趋势,到2020和2030年,将分别增长至11.5%和15.3%.%A bottom-up approach based on transport turnovers was employed to establish a model for calculation of energy consumption and exhaust emissions from water-borne transportation sector. Chinese inland, coastal and ocean transport turnovers were obtained based on the relationships of transport turnovers against GDP and the growth prediction of GDP in next years. Combined with emission factors employed by IMO, energy consumption and exhaust emissions of water-borne transportation in China from 2001 to 2030 were estimated. In 2001, fuel consumption and NOx, CO, NMVOC, CO2, SO2 and PM emissions from water-borne transportation sector in China were 7.909, 0.636, 0.059, 0.019, 24.832, 0.372 and 0.046 million tons respectively; in 2030, fuel consumption and NOx, CO, NMVOC, CO2, SO2 and PM emissions were 59.518, 4.051, 0.165, 0.183, 187.432, 0.155 and 0.061 million tons respectively; from 2001 to 2030, fuel consumption and CO2 and NOx emissions from water-borne transportation sector in China increased with an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, 7.2% and 6.6% respectively; Due to the restriction of international maritime conventions, SO2 and PM emissions which are closely related to sulfur content in fuels reduced significantly since 2020; in 2001, CO2 emissions from water-borne transportation sector in China contributed around 3.2% CO2 emissions of world shipping, and thereafter gradually upward, in 2020 and 2030, the contribution would grow to 11.5% and 15.3% respectively.
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