基于信息交互分析的建设工程变更预测

摘要

工程变更是导致建设项目工期延迟和费用超支的重要原因.变更识别得越早,越有利于项目管理人员采取相应的预控措施来减缓变更对项目的不利影响.提出应用基于工作的依赖结构矩阵(DSM)进行工程项目实施过程中变更的预先识别.其中,基于工作的DSM用于表述每个工作之间的信息流;依赖关系图用于表述工作和非工作因素之间的信息流.并使用返工概率、返工百分比等对信息流建立了量化模型.利用Matlab7.1开发平台建立了建设工程变更预测系统,并应用于实际案例,输出结果验证了系统的有效性,可为建设!几程变更管理提供新的辅助工具.%Changes are the main cause of schedule delay and cost overrun in construction projects. Changes should be identified as early as possible, so that project management teams can take pre-management measures to minimize their negative impacts accordingly. By using Activity-based Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM), a prediction procedure was developed to predict changes during construction process. Activity-based DSM is used to model the information interrelationship between activities; dependency diagram is used to analyze the information interrelationship between activities and non-activity-based factors. Rework probability and rework impact are introduced to model the information flow quantitatively. A construction project change prediction procedure is developed by using Matlab7. 1, and it is verified through a case study.