基于线性回归及灰色-威布尔模型的化工机械设备损耗预测

摘要

将灰色模型与威布尔分布有机结合,采用建立的灰色模型和灰色-威布尔组合模型来预测化工机械设备损耗故障概率情况,通过实际案例计算分析表明:组合模型预测评估与实际情况具有更高的吻合度.又采用灰色模型和一元线性回归模型对比预测损耗故障,结果表明:灰色模型具有更好的预测精度.%The gray model and Weibull distribution were combined to established a Gray-Weibull Model, then they were employed to predict failure rate of chemical equipments. Calculating and analyzing some cases show that the prediction result matches well with the practical situation; having the gray model and unary linear regression model compared in equipment life prediction shows that gray model performs better.