由于岩溶含水介质的空间不连续性及空间异性,复杂岩溶矿区含水介质的概化及涌水量预测一直都是地下水数值模拟的难点.本文以马坑铁矿为例,对复杂岩溶矿区疏干条件下的介质概化进行了研究,以此构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,并利用地下水位动态及涌水量资料对模型进行识别和验证,然后分别对矿区未来+100 m、0 m开采水平的矿坑涌水量进行了预测,结果表明:+100 m、0 m开采水平的矿坑涌水量分别为36 900 m3/d、38 250m3/d,可见目前矿区疏干仍面临较大压力,应尽快采取多种措施以降低地下水位,保证采矿安全.%Because of the discontinuity and the special aeolotropism of karst water-bearing media, it's difficult to generalize the aquifers and predict the water yields in complex karst mining area for a long time. As a case study, the generalizability of karst water-bearing media under draining conditions in Makeng mining area is researched in the paper. The 3-D numerical simulation model is established for the research, and then, the model is identified and verified in light of the water table regime and water discharge. Moreover, the water yields of mine at +100 m level and 0 m level is predicted. The predictions show that the stable water yield at + 100 m level in normal year is 36 900 m3/d, the stable water yield at 0 m level in normal year is 38 250 m3/ d. Visibly, there is still great pressure on dewatering in the mining area, various measures should be taken as soon as posible to reduce groundwater table to ensure mining safety.
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