基于“推拉理论”的农业剩余劳动力转移研究--以山东省为例

摘要

在农村“推力”和城市“拉力”作用下，科学引导农业剩余劳动力的转移对加快我国工业化和城镇化进程具有重要意义。以山东省为例，选取1990—2013间相关的时间序列数据建立多元线性回归模型，运用主成分分析法和协整方程，实证分析农业剩余劳动力转移中各相关因素的作用规律。结果表明：城市就业空间的大小对农业剩余劳动力转移的作用最强，而从事非农劳动预期收入对劳动力转移的作用最弱；城镇失业率越低，阻碍劳动力转移的制度因素越弱，劳动力的文化素养和物质能力越强，对农业剩余劳动力的转移越有利。根据结果提出政策建议：不断提高农业劳动生产率，从而在农业中推出新的剩余劳动力，以便实现劳动力的后续转移；加快城市非农产业的发展，吸纳更多的农业剩余劳动力；加快以户籍制度为中心的改革。%As the countryside pushes and the city pulls labor force, the transfer of surplus agricultural labor force significantly is of great significance to China’s industrialization and urbanization. Taking Shandong Province as an example,this paper uses relevant data (1990—2013 )to establish the multi variable regression model and investigates the effect of the transfer of agricultural surplus labor. The results show that the size of urban employment has the strongest effect on the transfer of labor and that the income from engaging in non-agricultural labor has the weakest effect.At the same time,the lower the urban unemployment rate,the weaker the institutional factors to block the transfer.And the better the labor force’s cultural qualities and labor skills,the easier the transfer of surplus agricultural labor force.