基于信息扩散理论的辽宁省水稻减产率风险评估

摘要

The present study made a risk assessment of rice yield reduction rates in different areas of Liaoning Province.Based on the rice production data collected from 1993 to 2013 in this province,trend yields were obtained by using the linear sliding average method, rice yield reduction rates in different areas of Liaoning Province were estimated according to the risk analysis model of information diffu-sion theory.Based on the estimated average yield rates and risk indexes,Liaoning Province was divided into five area groups with differ-ent risk levels:low risk areas,relatively low risk areas,medium risk areas,relatively high risk areas,and high risk areas.As a result, Panjin area is suitable for rice cultivation due to its good climate conditions and fertile soil;by contrast,western areas of Liaoning Prov-ince are not suitable for planting rice because of local drought and heat conditions and higher rice production risks.%利用辽宁省1993—2013年的水稻产量资料，采用直线滑动平均法计算出趋势产量，并基于信息扩散理论的风险分析模型，以平均减产率和风险指数为指标，对辽宁省水稻减产率进行风险评估。根据评估结果，将辽宁省划分为5个区域：低风险区、较低风险区、中等风险区、较高风险区、高风险区。结果表明：盘锦地区气候条件好，土壤肥沃，是水稻生长适宜区；辽西地区由于干旱和热量条件，水稻生产风险较高，不适宜种植水稻。