基于气象测量场的爬坡时段区域风功率预测

摘要

With large scale wind farms integrating into electric power systems,the risks caused by the wind power ramp continuously increases.Accurate wind power ramp forecasting is of great importance for the secure and economic operation of power systems.A regional wind power forecasting method during the ramp periods is proposed by using meteorological measurement field data.The wind speed matrix extracted from the measurement field is decomposed into various spatial modes and principal components through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition,which encodes regional wind speed field dynamics during ramp periods.The mapping between the decomposed principal components and regional wind power is constructed by using multiple variable nonlinear regression method.To address wind speed prediction error,the interval EOF decomposition is used,adapting the proposed forecasting method to the uncertainty of measurement data.The forecasting results from a region with multiple wind farms demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the precision of regional wind power forecasting during ramp periods,and shows strong robustness against wind speed prediction error.%随着大规模风电接入电网，风电爬坡事件的风险不断增大，提高爬坡时段风功率预测精度对电网安全经济运行具有重要作用。提出了一种基于气象测量场的爬坡时段区域风功率预测方法。考虑爬坡时段风速场的动态变化，利用经验正交函数分解，将风速资料阵分解成不同空间模态和主分量，通过多元非线性逐步回归方法建立风速场主分量和区域风功率间的映射关系。考虑风速预测误差，采用区间正交函数分解，将上述模型扩展为处理非确定性数据的预测方法。实际区域风功率预测结果表明，所提出的方法能够显著提高风电爬坡时段风功率预测的精度，对存在风速预测误差的情况具有较强的鲁棒性。