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城镇化、郊区化与中国城市空间扩张

         

摘要

As the mono-centric urban model shows , both the market forces , urbanization and suburbaniza-tion, can promote the urban spatial expansion , resulted in the urban sprawl .The paper briefly analyzed the impact of urbanization and suburbanization on the urban spatial expansion theoretically .According to the situation in Chi-na’ s urbanization , we chose the corresponding indicators and data and conducted multiple cross section and panel data regression .Both the cross section data and panel data show that , both the urbanization and suburbanization force works and the former one plays a more important role .At the same time , the later one has a growing tendency as the coefficient is gathering volume year by year .Similar to America , China ’ s urban spatial expansion is mainly promoted by population .It is interesting to note that the transportation cost has a greater influence in China , while the income does more in America .The result shows clearly that the driving force of the urban sprawl is much grea-ter than resistance , consistent with the reality of China .It is worth noting that the year of 1998 is an important time point in this process .As the watershed of the urban spatial expansion speed and the boundary point of the signifi -cance of income under the effect of the market , the reform of the housing system in 1998 is the milestone in the process of China ’ s urban spatial expansion .%城市经济学的理论表明,城市人口增长和交通改善等因素都会导致城市的空间扩张,但其作用的机理不同。结合中国的情况,将城市空间扩张的影响因素分为城镇化和郊区化2个市场化动力,二者都会推动城市空间扩张,导致城市边界向外延伸。历年截面数据和面板数据分析结果都表明,在中国城市空间扩张进程中,城镇化动力和郊区化动力都在起作用,城镇化动力占主导地位,与此同时,郊区化动力也有增强的趋势。人口增长和交通改善推动城市空间扩张,城市建成区面积扩张的推动力远大于阻力。作为城市空间扩张速度变化的分水岭以及市场作用下收入水平显著性改变的分界点,1998年的住房制度改革对于中国城市空间扩张进程有着里程碑式的意义。

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