台商投资可促进大陆产业升级和两岸关系稳定。基于1991—2012年台商对大陆制造业直接投资数据，将大陆台资制造业细分成劳动密集型产业、资金密集型产业、技术密集型产业，分析其时空扩散特征，并用灰色关联方法探讨台资制造业时空格局演化的影响要素。结果表明：①大陆台资制造业行业结构有明显的阶段变化，与岛内产业结构调整密切相关；②大陆台资制造业空间分布表现出集聚与扩散并存，在集聚主导下呈现由南向北、由东向西的扩散态势，并由南部沿海地区的单集聚格局发展为南部与东部沿海地区的双集聚中心，最后演化为东部沿海地区的单集聚中心；③东部沿海地区承接南部沿海地区的三类产业（尤其是技术密集型产业）转移成为高度集聚区，中西部则主要吸引资源型和劳动密集型产业；④不同阶段影响台商对大陆不同类型制造业投资的主导因子不同。%Based on the data of TDI in Chinese Mainland’ s manufacturing from 1991 to 2012 , this article di-vided TDI manufacturing into labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industry, then analyzed the spatial and temporal diffusion characteristics, and finally explored its evolution factor through grey relational analy-sis.The type of TDI manufacturing in Chinese Mainland has significant periodic changes, which is closely related to the adjustment of the industrial structure in Taiwan.TDI manufacturing in Chinese Mainland has a series of spa-tial characteristics, such as the coexistence of concentration and diffusion, while dominated by concentration, it spreads from south to north, from east to west and changes from a single center of the southern coastal areas to a du-al-center of the southern and eastern coastal areas, and finally evolves into a single center east coast.The eastern coastal areas has become a highly-concentrated area by taking over the southern coastal areas’ three kinds of indus-tries, especially technology-intensive industries, while central and western areas attracted resource-based and labor-intensive.In different stages the dominant factors effecting the manufacturing types of TDI are different.
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