哈长城市群经济格局时空演化特征

摘要

在构建综合测度评价指标体系基础上，采用TOPSIS、区域不平衡测度及ESDA分析方法对2000—2014年哈长城市群内8个地级市、49个县域经济发展水平进行综合评价，并对各地区经济格局的时空演化进行实证研究。结果表明：2000—2014年哈长城市群整体经济呈现稳步发展势头；同类地区在空间上集聚，但地区间差距逐渐拉大，经济格局存在“俱乐部趋同”现象；不同时期、不同发展水平地区热点、冷点区域转移概率与转移方向无较明显“轨迹”；局部空间自相关显著，各区域单元的空间经济格局变动较大，主导轴线和核心城市引擎作用尚不足，哈长城市群在东北地区的优势地位并不突出，短期内对引领东北地区经济发展的能力还较弱。%In this paper, TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution ),regional im-balance measure and ESDA ( exploratory spatial data analysis ) analysis method were used to evaluate the economic development level of the 8 cities and 49 counties in Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration since 2000 and explore the spatial-temporal evolution of economic pattern in this area based on the establishment of measure indicator sys -tem for economic development .The results showed that the change of economic development level in Harbin-Chang-chun urban agglomeration has rendered a steady momentum of growth in recent 10 years;The same kind of region is collecting in space , but the economic gap are gradually widened .At the same time , economic development level ex-ists“club convergence” phenomenon .The transition probability and transfer direction have no obvious “trajectory”in hot and cold spot area;Local spatial autocorrelation and the change of spatial pattern is marked , and the engine function of leading axis and core city are inadequate .It is also reveals that the undominant position of Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration can not guide the economic development in the northeast China in a short time .