“三驾马车”对广西经济重心空间迁移的拉动分析

摘要

以往对“三驾马车”认知停留在其对经济增长的增量影响,缺乏空间方向概念.由此,以经济重心作为衡量经济空间结构的指标,并以广西为例,从拉动经济增长的消费、投资和出口“三驾马车”视角出发,通过重心和灰色关联度模型,对比分析“三驾马车”重心与经济重心的演化路径,进一步揭示三大拉力对经济重心空间迁移的影响.结果表明:2004-2014年广西经济重心迁移路径呈“S”型,2010,2013年分别为重心空间转向的拐点;在空间位置方面,与经济重心邻近程度由高至低依次是消费重心、投资重心和出口重心;在迁移路径方面,消费重心的移动距离最小且变动较为稳定;出口重心的移动距离最大,整体上呈往西南方向迁移态势;投资重心与经济重心的迁移路径在2009年以后的走势较为一致.在拉力作用方面,“三驾马车”对经济重心在不同阶段及不同方向上的影响强弱不一,整体而言是投资大于消费大于出口.%In the past,the "three carriages"concept in China has stayed on its contribution to economic growth,ignoring the dimension of spatial direction.Thus,using the economic gravity center as a measure of economic spatial structure and setting Guangxi as an example,this paper compares the evolutionary paths of the "three carriages" including consumption,investment and export and the path of economic gravity center,further reveals which carriage is the most powerful to pull the economic gravity center through the center of gravity and the grey correlation models.The shifting path of the economic gravity center of Guangxi is "S" type from 2004 to 2014,and the spatial turning points are in 2010 and 2013.In the aspect of spatial location,the nearest gravity center to economic gravity center is consumption,then the investment and export.In terms of spatial migration path,the moving distance of the consumption gravity center is the minimum and the path is more stable.The export gravity center is to the contrary,and its migration path is toward southwest direction on the whole.The trend of the migration path of investment gravity center and economic gravity center is more consistent after 2009.In terms of the pull function of the "three carriages" to economic gravity center,the pulling effect is depending on the different stages and direction.but as a whole,in terms of strength,the order of pulling force is investment,consumption and export.