恐怖袭击下危险品运输网络级联失效抗毁性建模与仿真

摘要

According to the cascading failure characteristics of complex network,this paper proposed a model of cascading failure survivability for hazardous materials transportation network (HMTN) in the face of terrorist attack. Under the condition of the terrorist attack, it analyzed the cascading failure process of HMTN, and defined the cascading failure survivability of HMTN. From the perspective of result and process, it proposed the survivability indicators and their calculation which were node survival rate number of the second relative cascading failure. By establishing the scene, it gave the simulation flow chart, and quantitatively researched the different node' s degree, different capacity coefficient and different planning of HMTN under cascading failure,and it realized in the use of programming in the MATLAB. The results show that the model is effective, and can provide new ideas and methods to optimize the topology structure of hazardous materials transportation network.%针对复杂网络的级联失效特性,提出了危险品运输网络在遭遇恐怖袭击后的级联失效抗毁性模型.在恐怖袭击条件下,对危险品运输网络的级联失效过程进行分析,定义了危险品运输网络抗毁性,从结果性和过程性两个视角出发,提出了网络抗毁性的评价测度节点存活率和相对二次级联失效数.通过建立仿真场景,给出了仿真流程图,并就不同节点的度、不同容量系数和不同规划方式下危险品运输网络级联失效特性进行了定量研究,并通过MATLAB软件编程实现.仿真结果表明了模型的科学有效性,为优化危险品运输网络的拓扑结构提供新的研究思路和方法.