Responses of Single Cropping Rice Yields to Climate Change in Sichuan Province, China

摘要

cqvip:Sichuan province is one of the 13 major grain-producing provinces in China and also an obvious region of climate change.In this study, the responses of single cropping rice yields to climate variables under climate change at each development stage wereinvestigated by using the linear regression method based on yield and climate data at 84 counties in Sichuan province of China from1981 to 2012. The results indicated that change of all climate variables （increase of average temperature and diurnal temperaturerange, and decrease of precipitation and solar radiation） during different development stages in recent 30 years caused significantchange of yield in less than 10% of the rice planting area. However, climate change from 1981 to 2012 had caused significantimpacts on rice yield in roughly 47.6% of the rice area, with yields fluctuating by -11.77% to 24.55%. Moreover, averagetemperature was the most key contributor for the impact on rice yields in all climate variables and solar radiation was the most keycontributor for the negative impact on rice yields. The empirical findings presented here provide a foundation for anticipating climatechange impacts on rice production.