山东潍坊地区的一次大风冰雹强对流天气分析

摘要

为了更好地研究潍坊地区强对流天气的发生发展机制及特点，减少大风冰雹等灾害性天气带来的危害，为日后的春夏季节强对流天气预报工作提取可利用的预报指标，提高预报准确率，特对此次强对流天气过程进行诊断分析。本文利用常规气象资料进行剖面和探空分析，同时结合雷达和卫星云图等短时临近数值预报产品进行成因分析，得出此种强对流天气的发生特点和类型。结果表明，此次强对流天气产生的重要原因是东北冷涡东移过程中分列出的高空槽。冰雹发生在2日的下午，此时低层升温明显，能量充足。前倾结构的高空槽使高层干冷空气叠加在低层暖湿空气上，导致不稳定层结出现，从而触发了强对流天气的发生。%To better study occurrence and development mechanism and characteris-tics of strong convective weather in Weifang, reduce the harm brought by disastrous weather, such as gale and hail, extract available forecast index for future strong convective weather forecast work in spring and summer, and improve forecast ac-curacy, diagnostic analysis of the strong convective weather process was conducted. By using conventional weather data for profile and sounding analysis, and combining short-term numerical forecast products for cause analysis, such as radar and satel-lite cloud chart, occurrence characteristics and type of such strong convective weather were obtained. Results showed that the important reason of the strong convective weather occurrence was high-altitude trough split out in eastward move-ment process of northeast cold vortex. In the afternoon of 2nd when hail occurred, temperature rise was obvious at low layer, and energy was sufficient. High-altitude trough with forward tilting structure made that dry cold air at high layer overlapped on warm wet air at lower layer, thereby causing stable stratification formation and triggering the occurrence of strong convective weather.