利用沙雅县气象站1960～2009年的日均温度数据,以回归分析和趋势线分析方法,分析沙雅县近50 a来年均气温、≥10℃积温、极端气温的年际和季节变化特征及其对农业生产的影响.分析结果显示:(1)近50 a来沙雅县年均气温总体呈增加趋势,其线性倾向率为0.424℃/10a,气温波动基本上与我国西北地区气温变化趋势一致.气温的季节变化较明显,冬秋春三季对年均气温增加贡献较大.(2)近50 a来≥10℃积温值增加,其线性倾向率为12.302℃/10a,持续天数增多,在50 a中延长27.85 d左右.在研究期极端最高气温变化不大,但极端最低气温呈明显上升趋势,线性倾向率为1.497℃/10a.(3)年均气温和≥10℃积温增加,使喜温作物生长期延长.冬季平均气温,尤其是极端最低气温的升高,有利于越冬作物种植北界向北扩展,多熟制向北推移,喜温作物棉花的种植面积扩大,复种指数提高.但增加了冬季农田土壤水分蒸发,使越冬病虫卵蛹死亡率降低,增大了病虫害防治难度,在作物生长期气温升高,缩短了养分的积累时间,降低了品质.%By using the data of average daily temperature from 1960 ~ 2009 provided by Shaya meteorological station, regression analysis and trend line analysis were applied to analyze the recent 50 years' annual temperature, accumulated temperature ≥ l0°C and extreme inter- annual and seasonal temperature variation and their impacts on agricultural production. The results showed: (1) The annual temperature showed an overall increasing trend, and the linear trend rate was 0.424°C /10a, while the temperature fluctuation was basically consistent with the temperature trends in Northwest China. The seasonal variation of temperature was obvious, and the winter, spring and autumn had a greater contribution to the annual temperature increase. (2) The accumulated temperature ≥ 10°C increased, its linear trend rate was 12 .302°C/10a, the number of sustained days increased, it increased 27.85 days during the last 50 years. During the research period, the extreme maximum temperature basically did not change, but the extreme minimum temperature tended to increase, the linear trend rate was 1.497°C/10a. (3) The annual temperature and accumulated temperature increased, it extended the growth period of the thermophilic crops. The average temperature in winter, especially the rise of the extreme minimum temperature is conducive to the extending of northern boundaries of winter crops to further north, the north going of multi-cropping system, thermophilic crop area expansion and the increasing of the multiple cropping index. But this increased the winter soil moisture evaporation which resulted in the decrease of pupae over wintering eggs disease mortality, this will increase the difficulty of pest control, and the increase of temperature in the crop growing period will reduce the accumulation of nutrients in time and the quality.
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