近44年山东济宁气候变暖特征及其对农业生产的影响

摘要

Using the daily air temperature and weather observations in Jining general weather station from 1970 to 2013,the air temperature trend was analyzed by linear trend estimate;the stability of daily temperature was investigated through linear interpolation analysis;the first date of 12℃,16℃ and the end date of 16℃,18℃,and the first data and end date of frost,the crop trends of climate variables in Jining in recent 10 years were studied by 5 a running mean,to provide scientific reference for Jining agricultural production. The results showed that the annual temperature increased obviously in Jining. The temperature increased significantly in fluctuation in winter,summer and fall,but the trend was small in summer.The temperature rise was mainly due to the lowest temperature rise.The warm winter had been a serious problem since 1994.The end date of frost brought forward but the first date brought backward. The days of non-frost increased.The crop of spring seeding date brought forward and fall seeding backward.The crop growth and development,cropping systems and production in Jining City changed significantly due to climate warming and significant change.%为济宁市农业生产中应对气候变暖环境制定农业措施提供参考，利用济宁国家一般气象站1970—2013年逐日气温、天气现象观测资料，运用线性倾向估计法分析气温变化趋势，线性内插法分析日平均气温稳定通过12℃、16℃初日和16℃、18℃终日的变化，以及无霜冻终、初日变化，运用5a 滑动平均等方法分析济宁近10年农作物气候产量变化趋势。结果表明：济宁市年平均气温上升明显，冬春秋季气温在波动中上升极显著，夏季变化较小；济宁气温升高主要是最低气温升高所致，自1994年以来暖冬现象十分严重；霜冻终日提前、初日推后，无霜期天数增多；农作物春播期提前，秋播期推迟，济宁市农作物的生长发育、耕作制度及气候产量均因气温升高而产生明显变化。